So there will be not repeat of the Dr. Garang crash, all top S.P.L.M. should be transport in the same jets, the CIA is using for transportation of top Sudanese government officials.

Given the growing level exchanges between the US and Sudanese security agencies and militaries, the S.P.L.M. intelligence unit should be transition inside the America loop to keep a level playing field. The S.P.L.M. needs to be immediately integrated into US Space Command s Central African defense grid. Formal communication links needs to be created between the Chinese military command and the S.P.L.M. command. Public statements should clarify nature and level of Chinese military cooperation with the UN or US in Darfur and South Sudan

By I.R.Scott

In a highly publicized move specifically designed to attack the hegemony of the SLMT over other rebel groups, the French multinational oil giant Total SA (TOT) with the full support of the French government, is the hiring of a senior United Kingdom lawyer to independently confirm its claim on a potentially rich South Sudan oil block disputed with U.K. based White Nile Ltd. (WNL.LN). French troops from Chad are massing at the Sudan border, in military striking distance of the Block Ba oil zone claimed by the French multinational oil company.

In its July 25 report, the European Union funded, London-based international Crisis Group (ICG) said the arrangement between White Nile (WNL.LN) and Nile Petroleum Corp (NPC) has no legal standing and threatens the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in January by the Sudanese government and the SPLM, now also known as the government of South Sudan. According to the ICG report the SPLM –backed oil companies are structured like a "personal fiefdom".

Next Total SA will press its claims to Block B in the London courts. This will be followed by a claim in files New York City with the Security Exchange claiming the same issues. These legal moves with the stock exchanges are designed to contain and/or stop the planned mutli billion dollar capitalization of the Nile and White Corporation.

If any or all of these claims are upheld, the capitalization of the White Nile Ltd. will be stopped. Opening the door to an international crisis and war.

Without White Nile structure, Nile Petroleum, once its legal status has been deal with, Total SA and other companies will be able to force Nile Petroleum to negotiate from a position of weakness because its needs up front money to finance social programs, industrial projects and military upgrades. In the worse case scenario, Total SA can negotiate with the other rebel groups first and then leverage these agreements to structure a deal with Nile Petroleum.

This Total SA legal challenge is to a possible 5 billion barrels of oil or 300 billion dollar project was set in motion days before Dr. Garange untimely death. The United Kingdom legal battle is a critical part of the French company is plan fight against the government of southern Sudan.

The immediate goal of this legal battle is to stop the creation of a powerful centralized southern Sudanese government oil company. The Nile Petroleum Corp is being modeled on the powerful Saudi Aramco. Total SA is trying to create the preconditions to opening up southern Sudanese oil to western penetration.

Critically missing from EU and most other western analyses of the crisis in southern Sudan is the ruthless terms of revenue sharing terms of the Total oil agreement. Under the reactivated 20-year-old agreement between the Total SA Oil Company of France and the Sudanese government will only get via its oil company, only 10 percent of the revenues from Block Ba oil fields in southern.

Block Ba may have as much as 5 billion barrels of oil or 300 billion dollar. By some accounts the South Sudan may have as much as 12.5 billion barrels of oil or 750 billion dollar. For the first three years the South Sudan would get 5 cent of the dollar of declared profits and only ten starting in the four year.

That is, for every dollar of declared revenues, the central government of Sudan get only ten cent on the dollar. The new South Sudan government would get 50 percent of the ten cent, i.e. 5 cent. In the seven year, the South Sudan government would get 10 cent on the dollar.

Any adjustment to the agreement would be shared 50/50 between the North/South regions of the Sudan for the first six years.

The following are revenues analysis’s mean for illustration purposes only.

At 1 million barrels per day; the emerging South Sudan government would receive only 3 million day or 33 cent (US) per person (12 million people in South Sudan). This Total SA revenues regime amounts to 1.08 billion dollar a year from the Block Ba for six years for the South Sudan starting in 3 years, while the multinationals in the Total group would divide up 19.4 billion every year. In five years the multinational would take out 100 billion dollars from the South Sudan and both North/South Sudan would get 5 billion each.

Under a revenue agreement negotiated by the late Dr. Garang, first Vice President of Sudan and President of the South Sudan and the White Nile Ltd. Oil Company, the South Sudan government and the central government of Sudan would divide 8.4 billion to 10.8 billion in equal shares per year for three years. After that period, the South Sudan would keep all the revenues. This calculation is based on a 60/40 ratio of revenue sharing. This does not account for the fact that White Nile Ltd. is 50 percent owned by state-owned Nile Petroleum Corporation of South Sudan.

The While Nile revenue sharing regime is four times greater or 3 to 4 billion more each year than the Total SA revenue regime. The South Sudan government would have 4.2 billion to 5.4 billion for its future operational budget. Also, the South Sudan government could leverage its revenue for many different types of loans to address pressing issues like education, health care, national defense or Darfur.

This revenue sharing regime with White Nile would realize far more revenue for the new South Sudan state. Four to five times the amount of oil revenues the first six years and 10 times the amount of Total oil company revenue sharing regime after year six. The different in the two regimes over just six years in 18 to 24 billion dollars of social programming. For a poor struggle country like South Sudan that a lot of money for a lot of needs. The immediate needs of Darfur are estimated at 2 billion dollar.

For the war torned southern regions of Sudan this potential increase oil revenues is very critical to southern Sudan recovery and economic development.

The political situation in southern Sudan is degenerating toward renew open tribal war, both between the rebels and the government and various rebel groups trying to repositions themselves in the emerging power struggle against the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement (S.L.M.T.) hegemony. This degeneration is driven by an aggressive counterinsurgency effort by the French oil multinational Total SA to try and divide the rebel alliance. Secret meeting and counter offers to the S.L.M.T.- controlled Nile Petroleum Corporation are being made to various elements within the southern alliance of rebel groups.

At the core of this degeneration is a lost of hope, based on new reports surfacing in London about the legal status of the White Nile and Nile Petroleum which the S.L.M.T. had placed very high hopes on for a quick infusion of billion of dollars to jump start the cash starved South Sudan government and economy. The S.L.M.T. plan a major capitalization of both the Nile and White Nile Corporation. Some of the monies from the capitalization will be used this year running of the South Sudanese government and defense.

The untimely death of Dr. Garang and the growing ruthless attacks from the London security exchange puts the whole Sudanese secret plan to take legal control southern Sudanese oil are at serious risk. The collapsing of what appears to be a shell corporation, White Nile Corporation. This legal attack by Total SA also puts the hegemonic control of the S.L.M.T. over the resistance structure and administration of South Sudan at dangerous risk.

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